REPOST: Playing the Percentages 2009

Since FloridaFB.com is no more I wanted to pluck some of the old posts from that site and add that you can pick up the new, FNF Magazine in July. You can preorder it at www.floridafootballmag.com

Anyway, I was going to do a Part II when the site got yanked from me. Should I do a Part 2? You tell me. Until then, enjoy Part I again.

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Before we get to the numbers from the 2009 recruiting season, here is a quick explanation of what "Playing the Percentages" is for those that didn't read last year's column. It is a numerical look into each Division 1-A recruiting class in Florida to see how many of the players in their respective classes come from Florida high schools.

There is no proven link of success on the field to having the most Florida-based players, although 10 national championships in the last 26 years could dispute that. But as programs such as LSU, USC, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State put an emphasis on recruiting "home-grown talent", so should schools in the state of Florida.

"Home-Grown" talent also includes junior college players who played high school in Florida before going off to JuCo, such as USF signee Jason-Pierre Paul (Deerfield Beach).

As always please feel free to send any emails and questions to cl@ae-engine.com.

In-State Schools

South Florida – 93.3 percent (28 of 30 commitments). In a competitive three-way race for the top spot it proved to be a numbers game for USF as they signed the most players and barely edged FIU and Florida Atlantic. The Bulls pulled what many experts believe is the sort of class that could change the balance of power in the state. Whether it does remains to be see but with the signings of Ryne Giddins (Armwood), Lamar Lindsey (Hillsborough) and Julius Forte (Boca Ciega) the Bulls are now officially players for the top talent in the Tampa Bay area.

Florida Atlantic – 92.3 percent (24 of 26 commitments). While the Fighting Owls’ two-year streak at the top was snapped there’s little doubt that Howard Schnellenberger and thoroughly inspect every inch of “FAU Territory” for in-state talent. For those wondering “FAU Territory” stretches from Broward county to Marion County and all directions across. But stiff FAU signed players from Northwest Florida and the Jacksonville area proving that territory to be ripe for expansion.

Florida International – 90.9 percent (20 of 22 commitments). If FIU can improve by a couple of wins this year it’s quite possible that all seven of the state’s Division 1-A teams will make bowl games in the 2009 season. Never one to stray far away from home, Mario Cristobal and staff signed 10 of their 22 players from Miami-Dade County but their biggest catch might have been Larvez “Pooh Bear” Mars, who was expected to sign out of state.

Miami – 68.4 percent (13 of 19 commitments). If Bryce Brown signs with the Hurricanes at the end of the month as expected this number would drop to 65 percent but still Miami stays over that 60% area where the major in-state schools should be. Unlike last year when over a 1/3 of the class came from Miami-Dade County, Randy Shannon and his staff had to spread out a little more and did a good job landing players in the central and north central part of the state.

Florida State – 61.9 percent (13 of 21 commitments). This year’s class sees a slight improvement from last season for the Seminoles as they continue to revamp their in-state recruiting efforts. Led by Jimbo Fisher and James Coley, the Seminoles staff did an excellent job of grabbing talent in the Big Bend area and adding players from Tampa Bay and the Space Coast along with several more in South Florida. There’s little doubt that this program is rededicating itself to in-state recruiting.

UCF – 61.9 percent (13 of 21 commitments). After last year’s dismal in-state numbers the Knights did a full 180 with its 2009 class. George O’Leary and Dave Kelly led the Knights staff past negative headlines and into a lot of areas around the state. The key to UCF’s in-state haul was convincing North Miami Beach quarterback Nico Flores to stay in state instead of commitment to Western Michigan.

Florida – 50 percent (8 of 16 commitments). Low percentage but it was a small class and if the Gators receive a commitment from Orson Charles this week the number will move up to 52.9. With two national titles in three seasons there’s little room to criticize anything the Gators do in recruiting. That being said it’s going to be interesting to see if Florida avoids the “national trap” that hampered FSU and Miami in the earlier part of the decade. Sometimes those Pennsylvania and California recruits don’t adjust to the style of play in the Southeast.


SEC Schools

Ole Miss signed an amazing 37 players (!!) and pulled a handful from the state in the process while Steve Spurrier and his staff at South Carolina continued utilizing their Sunshine state connections. Surprisingly Auburn didn’t pull as many Florida players as usual but that was probably due to an unexpected coaching change. Lane Kiffin made a late sweep into Florida and will be a factor in the state for years to come.

Ole Miss – 24.3 percent (9 of 37 commitments)
South Carolina – 24.1 percent (7 of 29)
Vanderbilt – 23.5 percent (4 of 17)
Alabama – 11.1 percent (3 of 27)
Georgia – 11.1 percent (2 of 18)
Arkansas – 10 percent (3 of 30)
Tennessee – 15 percent (3 of 20)
Auburn – 6.7 percent (2 of 30)
Mississippi State – 3.7 percent (1 of 27)
Kentucky – 3.6 percent (1 of 28)
LSU – 0 percent (0 of 29)


ACC Schools

If anyone needs proof at how the economy has effected recruiting here it is. The ACC schools are down 50% in their recruiting of Florida prep prospects. Wake Forest and Clemson had 17 Sunshine staters alone last season. Clemson probably would have had a few if not for such a small class and the decommitment of Ben Axon (Manatee) to South Carolina.

Wake Forest – 30 percent (6 of 20 commitments)
Duke – 14.9 percent (4 of 27)
N.C. State – 11.1 percent (3 of 27)
North Carolina – 6.9 percent (2 of 29)
Georgia Tech – 4.8 percent (1 of 21)
Virginia Tech – 4.5 percent (1 of 22)
Virginia – 4 percent (1 of 25)
Clemson – 0 percent (0 of 12)
Maryland – 0 percent (0 of 26)
Boston College – 0 percent (0 of 17)


Big East Schools

Steve Kragthorpe’s job security is obviously important to him. After pretty much shunning Florida in 2008 he came back to the state in 2009. West Virginia will always be a player in Florida and this year was no different. The Mountaineers almost got Henry Orelus (Glades Central) to switch from FSU on Signing Day to add to that number. Rutgers, also probably hampered by the economy, decided to recruit Pennsylvania more heavily this year.

Louisville – 26.1 percent (6 of 23 commitments)
West Virginia – 25 percent (6 of 24)
Syracuse – 21.4 percent (3 of 14)
Pittsburgh – 10 percent (2 of 20)
Connecticut – 9.5 percent (2 of 21)
Rutgers – 4.3 percent (1 of 23)
Cincinnati – 4 percent (1 of 25)


Big 10 Schools

Purdue is in capital letters for a reason. A whopping 73.7 percent makes that Boilermakers program the fourth-highest percentage program in the nation this year behind USF, FAU and FIU. And Purdue didn’t stick to one area either. They had a commitment from Rob Henry (Ocala Trinity Catholic), Gabe Holmes (St. Thomas Aquinas) and Al-Terek McBurse (Winter Springs) among others. Michigan also cleaned up in the state with other a 1/3 of its class from Florida. Ohio State did its usual job of cherry picking top players to go along with an impressive haul of Ohio prospects.

PURDUE – 73.7 percent (14 of 19)
Michigan – 36.3 percent (8 of 22)
Illinois – 20 percent (4 of 20)
Minnesota – 20 percent (4 of 20)*
Wisconsin – 14.3 percent (3 of 21)
Ohio State – 12 percent (3 of 25)
Michigan State – 8.7 percent (2 of 23)
Northwestern – 5.6 percent (1 of 18)
Iowa – 5.3 percent (1 of 19)
Indiana – 0 percent (0 of 18)
Penn State – 0 percent (0 of 27)

* Minnesota is expected to sign Trabis Ward (Fort Lauderdale Dillard) this week which would push its percentage to 23.8


BIG XII and Pac 10 Schools

Anything west of the Mississippi is considered a bonus for Florida prospects as the schools in the Big XII and Pac 10 generally fill the out-of-state portion of their classes with prospects from Texas and California. Kansas State and Iowa State worked the Florida prospects in the junior colleges quite well while USC grabbed top 50 players Frankie Telfort (Gulliver Prep) and Jawanza Starling (Tallahassee Lincoln) to keep Florida prospects from an 0-fer on the west coast.

Iowa State – 26.1 percent (6 of 23 commitments)
Kansas State – 18.6 percent (5 of 27)
Southern Cal – 10.5 percent (2 of 19)
Kansas – 8.3 percent (2 of 24)
Nebraska – 5 percent (1 of 20)
Missouri – 4 percent (1 of 25)

Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, Washington and Washington State did not sign a player from Florida.

TOMORROW PART II (The non-BCS schools) (???)